Weigh a Roth conversion's upfront tax cost against its future tax-free growth — including the IRMAA surcharge it can trigger two years later.
Assumes the conversion tax is paid from outside funds, so the full conversion amount
grows tax-free — using IRA funds to cover the tax shrinks the comparison in the
Traditional side's favor.
Net advantage of converting
—
Tax owed this year—
Future Roth value tax-free—
Future Traditional value after tax—
IRMAA cost triggered one-time, 2 yr out—
Estimates only. CalcPenny is not a lender, broker or financial adviser and this
is not financial advice. Verify figures before making decisions.
The IRMAA hit is real but usually small next to the growth
A large conversion can bump you into a higher Medicare premium tier for one year — a real
cost, but typically a rounding error next to what an extra decade or two of tax-free
growth is worth. See the Medicare IRMAA
Calculator to check where a specific MAGI lands on its own, or the
RMD Calculator to see how converting now shrinks future
required distributions.
Frequently asked questions
Why compare against paying the conversion tax from outside funds?
Paying the tax bill from a separate savings or brokerage account lets the full conversion amount grow tax-free in the Roth — using part of the IRA itself to cover the tax (and paying an early-withdrawal penalty if you are under 59.5) shrinks the amount converted and is almost always the worse option.
Why would I convert if my tax rate stays the same?
Even at an identical rate, converting now and paying tax on today's smaller balance beats paying tax later on a larger, grown balance — the mechanics of pre-paying tax on the principal rather than the compounded total genuinely favor the Roth side, all else equal.
Why does this only show one year of IRMAA impact?
IRMAA is reassessed every year from your MAGI two years prior — a one-time conversion only inflates one year's MAGI, so it only affects one year's premium, two years later, not every year going forward.